FACT CHECK: SRI LANKAN WEATHER WARNINGS AND POLITICAL CLAIMS
The Sri Lankan Met Department issued warnings from Nov 12-26 about heavy rain and cyclonic development, contradicting government claims of no red alerts, and challenging opposition dates.
by Anonymous |
December 10, 2025
The main opposition, along with other opposition parties, has alleged that if the public had been properly informed by following the official announcements of the Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology, the casualties and damages from the recent disaster could have been significantly reduced. The government, however, has completely rejected this claim. Since the day of the disaster, this issue has been a main topic of discussion on social media and mainstream media, prompting Factseeker to investigate the truth behind it.
Accordingly, in its investigation, Factseeker focused on the comments made by the chief opposition member, Ranjith Madduma Bandara.
During this, he stated in Parliament: “The failure to manage the disaster that occurred a few days ago was due to the disregard and rejection of the Department of Meteorology’s announcements. The Director General of the Department of Meteorology had clarified the impending climate change situation on November 11th, stating that heavy rains would fall in the country due to the abnormal situation in the Bay of Bengal.” Furthermore, MP Ranjith Madduma Bandara stated that these announcements were also issued on November 12, 14, 17, 21, 22, and 24.
link :- https://www.youtube.com/live/Z4h3vmW6eNE?si=guvrDavO7zIrcS7A&t=7491
Commenting on the matter during the same day’s parliamentary session, MP Kabir Hashim said that had the government taken the right decisions at the right time, the losses from this disaster could have been minimized. He also pointed out to the House that discussions regarding this had been ongoing since the 11th.
link :- https://www.youtube.com/live/Z4h3vmW6eNE?si=BhfntzmIEUW_CVA-&t=3375
However, responding to these accusations from the opposition, Minister Anil Jayanta pointed out that these charges leveled against the government were incorrect. Specifically, he highlighted that “while the relevant institutions had issued notices of normal rainy weather conditions, there was no notification to the government or the relevant institutions indicating the possibility of a cyclone.”
link :- https://www.youtube.com/live/Z4h3vmW6eNE?si=ie0IzbAume5yCO4g&t=4238
Subsequently, on December 3rd, the Cabinet Spokesperson and Minister Nalinda Jayasinghe issued a statement in Parliament saying: “The Department of Meteorology did not issue any warning notice in any of the announcements released throughout the month of November.”
link :- https://youtu.be/5z1wJXdP9gA?si=OeA0yJoDtUpi8SqB
Therefore, Factseeker investigated whether the Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology had indeed issued such a threat.
Factseeker’s Investigation
Accordingly, following the statement by opposition member Ranjith Madduma Bandara, attention was paid to the remarks made by the Director General of the Department of Meteorology, Athula Karunanayake, during a Derana TV program on November 12th. He stated:
“A cyclonic circulation has formed in the lower atmosphere over the Bay of Bengal, and it has currently strengthened. However, we cannot say which direction it will move at this moment. Nevertheless, there will be a change in the current weather situation after the 14th. Based on my experience, this weather may cause some impact, even if indirectly. Accordingly, there will be changes in the weather over the next few days given the current situation. In any case, there is a high possibility of heavy rainfall.”
link : https://www.youtube.com/live/WJgLftkD43A?si=IGsp6JrTKT7HZ_ZE&t=1922
Factseeker also investigated the announcements issued by the Department of Meteorology in the days following this program:
- Nov 14th – https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1EbbncVZWy/
- Nov 17th – https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1ETTKcPzHi/
- Nov 21st – https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AFXmpfMdv/
- Nov 22nd – https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16q3bw7QTE/
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17gmJEHwfQ/
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17YTmsijRx/
- Nov 24th – https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17VaSejPX8/
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1GsRsTEw8y/
Attention to these announcements revealed that a warning was issued from November 14th regarding the formation of a low-pressure weather condition over the Bay of Bengal region.
Subsequently, in an announcement issued by the Department of Meteorology on the afternoon of November 18th, it was stated that “The low-pressure area prevailing around the country is gradually moving away from the country. Therefore, the rainy conditions currently prevailing in the country are expected to temporarily decrease tomorrow (19th) and the day after.”
However, in an announcement issued at 8 PM on the same day (November 18th), the Department of Meteorology announced that a turbulent situation could arise in the low-pressure area.
Therefore, the announcements issued by the Department of Meteorology from November 14th to the 22nd show contradictory observations. While in some instances, there was a warning that the weather was changing drastically, in other instances, the Department of Meteorology announced that the situation was smooth and the threat had decreased.
Following this, on November 24th, the Department of Meteorology released a photograph of the Bay of Bengal taken by China’s FY-4B satellite, announcing that this weather change would have a direct impact on the weather in Sri Lanka.
The announcement stated: “(A) As shown, here is a part of the turbulent condition in the lower atmosphere that has formed over Sri Lanka as of today (24th). This turbulent condition is intermittently causing a direct impact on the weather in Sri Lanka. Due to this, medium cloud layers and lower clouds are significantly forming over Sri Lanka and the surrounding sea areas. Condensation clouds causing thunder and lightning are important among them. Due to this cloud development, there is a chance of heavy rain with thunder in the evenings, nights, or early mornings over the next few days (November 25 to 28). This turbulent condition is predicted to develop into a low-pressure area by tomorrow (25th). As this system develops further, the associated anti-cyclone will affect Sri Lanka and its surrounding sea areas in the next few days. Therefore, caution should be exercised regarding disasters that may be caused by heavy rain and strong winds in the next few days. The impact of this system will gradually decrease
Warning : https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1JCLXfXzD8/
Nov 26 – https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1CiNxevQxr/
Thus, the Department of Meteorology has advised, both directly and through reports, that the weather in Sri Lanka would change to a severe condition from November 12th up to the 25th and 26th. Specifically, the report issued by the Department of Meteorology on the 25th indicated that “the cyclone formed in the Bay of Bengal will affect Sri Lanka and its surrounding sea areas in the next few days.”
link : https://www.dmc.gov.lk/images/dmcreports/Warning_for_Heavy_Rain_at_15__1764066573.pdf
Furthermore, on November 26th, the National Building Research Organisation (NBRO) issued a landslide warning for many parts of the country. This warning was issued for various areas on subsequent days, specifically issuing a Red Alert for all areas in the Central Highlands.
https:- //www.dmc.gov.lk/images/dmcreports/Landslide_Ew_Report_at_2300hrs_on_2025__1764269006.pdf link :
https:- //www.dmc.gov.lk/images/dmcreports/LEWM_29-11-2025_16_00__1764415674.pdf
Conclusions
The claim by opposition members, including Ranjith Madduma Bandara, that this warning was issued to the country as early as November 11th is incorrect.
The Department of Meteorology did not issue any direct Red Alert from November 12th to November 18th. Although advisories were issued periodically, they also released reports stating that the weather situation had changed again, specifically that the low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal was moving away from Sri Lanka and the pressure had decreased.
Similarly, in the announcement issued at 8 PM on the 18th, the Department of Meteorology announced that a turbulent situation could arise in the low-pressure area and urged caution. Although some continuous warning announcements were issued after this, none of those announcements warned that the low-pressure system would develop into a cyclone.
However, on November 24th, the Department of Meteorology released a photograph of the Bay of Bengal taken by China’s FY-4B satellite, announcing that this weather change would have a direct impact on the weather in Sri Lanka.
Similarly, Minister Nalinda Jayasinghe’s statement that “The Department of Meteorology did not issue any warning notice in any of the announcements released throughout the month of November” is incorrect. The Department of Meteorology issued several preliminary warnings after November 24th, also indicating that rainfall exceeding 150 mm would be recorded.
Furthermore, it must be considered that warnings from China’s satellite photographs and the BBC World Service also cautioned about a severe weather change occurring in Sri Lanka.
